Hope for the best, plan for the worst in 2004
Ray Allegrezza, Editor in chief -- Furniture Today, January 12, 2004
Welcome to 2004!
My wish for each of you is that 2004 becomes a year of met objectives, both professional and personal.
I guess I'm a hopeless optimist, but each January I feel a renewed sense of hope, energy, commitment and promise.
As evidence of that, I came into the office on New Year's day (we are officially closed for the holiday) to write this column, do a heavy cleaning of my office and spend some time in quiet contemplation, thinking about my own goals and objectives for the new year.
This has become a tradition with me — the annual reflection over goals and objectives.
To be frank, in terms of accomplishments, some years are better than others. Even so, the one thing that doesn't change is the guideline I use, which is an old cliché handed down to me by an even older grandfather.
His advice was short and to the point: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.
Heading into the new year, I believe we do have a lot to be hopeful about. Saddam Hussein has been captured, business in general seems to be on the rebound, consumer confidence is generally becoming stronger (although it dipped slightly in December) and for the first time in years, investors are selling bonds in order to once again invest in stocks.
Perhaps best of all, our industry's hot potato of 2003 — the antidumping issue — while still very much with us, is under investigation and in the hands of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Assuming the investigation isn't extended, a final determination from Commerce is expected in mid July. The International Trade Commission is expected to announce its decision on any duties to be imposed in late August.
In the meantime, we all need to refocus on the business at hand. While I have no clue as to the outcome or, in the event of duties, how large or small they might be, I can predict this:
The solid companies that may be affected will find ways to deal with it. Those companies that were on shaky ground prior to the antidumping issue clearly will not fare as well.
Those companies that may be hurt as a result of any antidumping decisions only took half of my grandfather's advice. They did a great job hoping for the best, but failed to plan for the worst.
This year is not likely to be a cakewalk, but I assure you that the folks out there with a good plan and the energy to work that plan probably will not only have their cake, but will eat it too. Our consensus forecast, which you can read elsewhere in this issue, also comes with some positive numbers for this year and next.
Best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2004!
Opinion columns are available online at www.furnituretoday.com.
